The Indian stock market indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open lower on Tuesday following mixed global market cues.

The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a negative start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 22,120 level, a discount of nearly 40 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.

This is a holiday truncated week and the trading volumes are expected to be lower with limited market cues. However, volatility may remain high as we approach the March F&O expiry and the financial year-end.

On Friday, the domestic equity benchmarks closed higher for the third consecutive session.

The Sensex gained 190.75 points to close at 72,831.94, while the Nifty 50 settled 84.80 points, or 0.39%, higher at 22,096.75.

Nifty 50 formed a reasonable positive candle on the daily chart with a minor upper shadow. 

“The market is facing strong resistance around 22,200 – 22,300 levels and a decisive break above this hurdle could open the next round of sharp upmove in the market. The Nifty on the weekly chart formed a small positive candle with a long lower shadow. The weekly support of the 10-week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) has been regained after the intra-week downside violation at 21,950. This is a positive indication,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.

He believes the short-term trend of Nifty remains positive. A sharp move above the hurdle of 22,200 – 22,300 levels could pull Nifty towards new all time highs around 22,550 levels.

Nifty OI Data

According to Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, options data shows some improvement, with the put-to-call ratio rising from oversold levels to 1.23. 

“However, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) maintain a high level of short exposure in index futures, currently at 65%. This elevated short positioning suggests there’s still potential for a short-covering rally,” Meena said.

Rahul Ghose, CEO, Hedged.in noted that the Bank Nifty index was seen having massive put writing all the way from 46,000 up to the 47,000 strike. 

“The bullish bias in fact is seen right up to the April expiry where April ITM or In the money put writing was seen on Friday. Nifty on the other hand continues to be in a small range as per Open Interest (OI) data with the next move happening only above the 22,300 mark or below the 21,700 mark on the downside,” Ghose said.

Nifty 50 Prediction

The Nifty 50 index continued with its follow-through up move on March 22 and closed the day higher by 84 points amidst volatility. 

“Nifty witnessed two days of recovery following a doji formation on the daily chart, indicating a bullish reversal. Moreover, the Nifty has reclaimed the critical 55-day exponential moving average. However, Nifty needs to cross over 22,100 to witness a clear rally towards the all-time high of 22,525,” said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities.

On the lower end, 22,950 might remain a strong support for the index. Below this level, the index might enter a consolidation phase, he added.

Bank Nifty Prediction

The Bank Nifty index rose 179 points to settle at 46,864 on March 22.

“The Bank Nifty index saw robust buying from lower levels but struggled to breach the resistance at 47,000. Immediate support lies at 46,600-46,500, and as long as the index holds above this level, the outlook remains bullish. A breakthrough above 47,000 is anticipated to trigger sharp short-covering rallies towards the 48,000 mark,” De said.